I come across articles all day on the Internet and share with you those that I find most interesting or those that in which I feel compelled to share my 2 cents.  This article on foreclosures and pricing from early December on CNN Money, was sent to me by a past client that is selling a home out of the area.  She is also a buyer in Orange County and sees the significant impact that foreclosure pricing has on her view of traditional, or equity, sellers.

It creates an interesting dynamic for her – she is both a buyer and a seller in this market.  That dual role allows her a tremendous clarity in the ability to position her listing.  She knows that she must price it to compete with the distress inventory in her marketplace.

As a buyer, she is also seeing that the although distressed inventory in our marketplace is not always in great condition, the best deals are often in that sector of the market.

As stated by CNN Money, “In California, the median price for an REO listing was $259,000 during the week of November 10, 23% lower than the non-REOs on the market according to Trulia.com.”

With REO’s in the state priced 23% lower than the traditional seller, it definitely puts the price pressure on equity sellers.  You must price to compete.

That being said, I have noticed (and discussed here) that traditional sellers do seem to get a higher price per square foot ultimately.  The possible reasons?  Full disclosure from the seller about past problems, often superior condition, less competition with other buyers because many investors target foreclosures, and the ability to have a timely response to an offer as opposed to the lengthy one in short sale circumstances.

Bottom line – look at your competition.  Are there distressed properties in your sector of the market?  You may have a bit of an edge as an equity seller, but buyers are looking for a good deal.    If you want to sell, you must be perceived as a good deal with pricing that is competitive.

This particular buyer is looking in Mission Viejo between $450,000 and $550,000.  He wants a single family residence.  With that criteria, I hit the MLS looking for a picture of where we really are. 

As many of you know, I’m the last person to jump on the ‘Hurry Buy Now’ band wagon.  However, if you are in this price range in South Orange County – this is speaking to you.  What did I find?

There are 40 Active single family residences currently listed in Mission Viejo between $450,000 and $550,000.  How do those breakdown?

• 19 are short sales (BTW – refer to my posts on shorts sales to understand the challenges with these sales)
• 4 Bank Owned
• 17 are supposedly equity sellers.  Upon further reading of the agent remarks in the listings 2 more of these are actually short sales and 1 is bank owned.

So, what does this leave us?  14 Traditional, Equity Sellers?  I should add 5 of these 14 are 55+ communities.  There are really only 9 equity sellers in my client’s search criteria out of 40.

It then becomes important to analyze the recent resale activity.  I pulled sales from the last 30 days with the same criteria - Mission Viejo, single family residences, $450 to $550.  Here are the stats:

• 21 Sales
• 6 Bank Owned
• 3 Short Sales
• 13 Traditional Sales (one 55+ community sale)

No rocket scientist needed here.  This is out of balance.

If you are not a numbers person, it’s okay, just try to stick with me here – 52.5% of the Active Inventory are short sales, but last month only 14.3% of the sales were short sales.

12.5% of the Active Inventory is bank owned, but last month 28.6% of the sales were bank owned.

And most telling, 22.5% of the Active Inventory are equity sellers (not to include senior communities), yet the sales from the last 30 days indicate that 51.1% were traditional sellers.

I’m actually not a numbers guru.  I love reading.  I love writing.  But, I also love logic and this should speak volumes to you.  The sellers that don’t have to sell have chosen not to; they’ve heard the message.  Buyers that have been fence sitting or have had affordability problems, have found that it is indeed their time.  Demand does exist.  The inventory may actually be lacking.  Do I hear – supply and demand?

Just to temper my enthusiasm, let’s look the sales prices.  No question – these are some other stats to consider from the last 30 days with that same criteria:

Short Sales – Sold at 98.29% of asking price with an average days on market of 143.  The average price per square foot was $253.09

Bank Owned - Sold at 101.55% of asking price with an average of 16 days on the market.  The average price per square foot was $263.06.

Traditional Sellers -Sold at 97.38% of asking price with an average of 34 days on the market.  The average price per square foot was $323.09.

I will suspect that the knee jerk response is that traditional sellers are overpriced on a per square foot basis – but look at the demand.   There’s a reason these are selling.  They are in superior condition (sometimes by a lot) and you can actually submit an offer to a live body, that has real emotion, and a desire to sell.  What’s the value in that?

So, if you think it’s a buyers’ market, think carefully and ask for the stats.  You need more than a cursory overview.  You need to drill down into the makeup of what it means to get a clear picture of the marketplace.

This is one picture of the OC marketplace, but from what I’m seeing, in certain pricepoints, it’s not isolated.  Thoughts?  I’m open to our interpretation of these numbers.