As I’ve said before on OC Voice, I’m not convinced that this is necessarily  the turnaround I’m looking for.  Most of this increase in sales is in the most distressed parts of our market.  In addition, 60% increase in sales over the historic lows of 2007 is good,  but clearly not great.  We are still about 50% off in sales volume from 2003 numbers and we are back to 2003 pricing.

Do I think we are approaching a bottom?  I do.  Am I ready to tell my buyers, ‘Hurry, before it’s too late?’  Not necessarily.  I think it may be time for some buyers to take the leap, however there are a lot of factors that go into that decision (stay tuned for my post about renting versus buying in today’s market).

But, I find it insulting when my colleagues reprint articles with a glimmer of hope, so that they may spread them far and wide with a ‘Hurry and Buy Now’ approach.  Consumers are smart.  Information is everywhere.  My clients understand that sales may be up, but prices are down.  My clients all have been watching the market, local trends, and values.  To suggest that if they don’t pull the trigger today, they’ll ‘miss the boat’ insults their intelligence and frankly, it continues to diminish the level of professionalism of the industry as a whole.

I’m not sure the philosophy ought to be much different in the housing market.  Yet the fear, the challenge in the financial markets, and the negative remarks from friends and family is keeping buyers out of the market.  But how long do you wait on the sidelines?

May 29th, Jonathon Lanser had an interesting article in his blog about the 15.4% decline we’ve seen and that a recovery may not be until 2010.  Clearly not good news. 

The worst of the decline may very well be behind us – but the recovery is not here yet.  Maybe this is the window of opportunity.  Michael Carney, the Cal Poly Pomona professor who heads the Real Estate Research Council of Southern California said, ”Once we get people thinking prices will go back up, we will see a fast turn. There’s a lot of money ready to go.”

It may not make sense to wait for the ‘good news’ that prices are rising again and if Carney is right, how quick can you get in on that ‘fast return’?