Category: Ladera Ranch

Every now and then you see a headline touting the increase in sales in Orange County.  Less than a week ago, Orange County Register’s Jon Lanser posted ‘1-in-3 O.C. ZIPs See Homebuying Doubling or Better’.   I love good news but it’s important to drill deep into what these statistics are telling us.

Price point is really one of the big players in this discussion.  The movement that is taking place is great if you are a seller in the below $500,000 market.  With the limitations in lending and lower pool of qualified buyers, sellers in the upper price points have to be prepared for a longer selling cycle.

When we talk about Absorption Rate, we are talking about how many months it would take for the existing buying demand to consume the total inventory if no other homes were to come on the market.  I recently calculated the Absorption Rates for some of South Orange County’s cities, but to get the truest picture of each marketplace, I thought it was critical to break it down by price point.

This is how it looks:

Absorbtion Rates

Absorbtion Rates

Notice, for example, Laguna Niguel.  It will take 14.42 months to exhaust the supply of inventory with current demand in the over $750 price range, yet homes in Laguna Niguel under $500,000 will only take 5.7 months to absorb. It’s important to note that Laguna Niguel has one of the lower rates of distressed property rates in the county and have a much higher median sales price overall.

Steven Thomas of Altera Real Estate, reported in his Orange County Housing Report that 69.4% of all the Lake Forest inventory are distressed sales.  Buyers and investors alike are targeting the distressed part of the market as opportunities.  Part of the reason that Lake Forest is enjoying one of the lowest overall absorption rates in our market is the high percentage of distress inventory and the related demand.

If you are considering buying, or selling your home, and want to know more about what these numbers might mean to you, don’t hesitate to let me know.  No arm twisting here – just happy to answer questions.
*These numbers are from SoCal MLS figures in the first week of November and
the closed sales in the proceeding 30 days.

Halloween CandyA Ladera Ranch Orthodontist is thinking outside the box and I dig it!  Dr. Harold Barkate is hosting a candy buy back program from 3 to 5 p.m. on Monday, November 3rd.  For every pound of candy a child brings in, Dr. Barkate will pay $1.

Go to his Ladera Ranch office at 800 Corporate Drive, Suite #260.  The candy will be donated to military families stationed at Camp Pendleton.  Hopefully it will be spread out so we aren’t destroying their teeth either.

Not sure if I’ll get my kids to bite off on the idea but I’m going to give it a shot.  I may have to do my annual pilfering of their stash before we take it in though.  :)

The Orange County Register’s Jonathon Lansner put together his Zippy’s, an analysis of the 83 Orange County zip codes. The chart gives a year over year breakdown of sales volume, price changes, and number of foreclosures in each of the 83 zip codes.Home pricing

The chart is definitely worth taking a few minutes to look at for the zip you are living in or if you considering a purchase in an Orange County city.

Some of the worst performing zip codes continue to be those in Santa Ana.  In one of its zip codes, 92701, 23.3 of every 1000 homes is in foreclosure ranking it the worst in the county.  Ladera Ranch, the home to much speculative purchases and high loan to value lending, ranked 81 with a 34% fall in sales activity and 26% fall in prices.

Newport Beach is the number 1 zip code with zero foreclosures per 1000 and one of the few places where positive numbers are seen in sales and pricing, but I’ll be interested to see if they continue to remain untouched by these markets.  With the financial and economic woes becoming more widespread, we may see a ‘trickle up’ to this market in the coming months.

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