Every now and then you see a headline touting the increase in sales in Orange County.  Less than a week ago, Orange County Register’s Jon Lanser posted ‘1-in-3 O.C. ZIPs See Homebuying Doubling or Better’.   I love good news but it’s important to drill deep into what these statistics are telling us.

Price point is really one of the big players in this discussion.  The movement that is taking place is great if you are a seller in the below $500,000 market.  With the limitations in lending and lower pool of qualified buyers, sellers in the upper price points have to be prepared for a longer selling cycle.

When we talk about Absorption Rate, we are talking about how many months it would take for the existing buying demand to consume the total inventory if no other homes were to come on the market.  I recently calculated the Absorption Rates for some of South Orange County’s cities, but to get the truest picture of each marketplace, I thought it was critical to break it down by price point.

This is how it looks:

Absorbtion Rates

Absorbtion Rates

Notice, for example, Laguna Niguel.  It will take 14.42 months to exhaust the supply of inventory with current demand in the over $750 price range, yet homes in Laguna Niguel under $500,000 will only take 5.7 months to absorb. It’s important to note that Laguna Niguel has one of the lower rates of distressed property rates in the county and have a much higher median sales price overall.

Steven Thomas of Altera Real Estate, reported in his Orange County Housing Report that 69.4% of all the Lake Forest inventory are distressed sales.  Buyers and investors alike are targeting the distressed part of the market as opportunities.  Part of the reason that Lake Forest is enjoying one of the lowest overall absorption rates in our market is the high percentage of distress inventory and the related demand.

If you are considering buying, or selling your home, and want to know more about what these numbers might mean to you, don’t hesitate to let me know.  No arm twisting here - just happy to answer questions.
*These numbers are from SoCal MLS figures in the first week of November and
the closed sales in the proceeding 30 days.

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