The Median Sale Price as reported by Dataquick for a home in the OC was $400,000 – which brings us back to May of 2003 if you’re tracking the bust backwards.  Lansner states, “That means that 53% of the 1996 to 2007 profit has evaporated.”

I found some other interesting tidbits on the DQNews site to report:

• 44.2% of sales in Orange County in the month of November were foreclosures.
• Sales volume is up 38.9% in November ’08 as compared to November ’07 numbers.
• Median sales price is down 31.4% from the median sales price in November ’07.

I want to draw your attention to one common misconception.  Take yourself back to your statistics class (come on now – don’t kick and scream like that – it will be a brief visit, I promise).  Remember the definition of median.  Dictionary.com defines ‘Median’ as “the middle number in a given sequence of numbers”.

Look at the above statistic and look at it with that definition now applied.  Median is not the average.  It just means that if there are 5 sales – the price of the number 3 sale is the median home price.

You cannot draw the conclusion that prices have all fallen 31.4% when comparing November ’07 and ’08 median home price figures.  Remember that 44.2% of the sales in November were foreclosures.  Much of the movement in our market is in the lower price points and in the most distressed price points – hence a lower median price.

Median home price is still a valuable indicator in the market but you must be careful of the conclusion you draw from the information.  There is no denying prices have fallen precipitously.  But, I do think it’s important to evaluate the numbers in the right context.

Okay – statistics class dismissed.

I’m not sure the philosophy ought to be much different in the housing market.  Yet the fear, the challenge in the financial markets, and the negative remarks from friends and family is keeping buyers out of the market.  But how long do you wait on the sidelines?

May 29th, Jonathon Lanser had an interesting article in his blog about the 15.4% decline we’ve seen and that a recovery may not be until 2010.  Clearly not good news. 

The worst of the decline may very well be behind us – but the recovery is not here yet.  Maybe this is the window of opportunity.  Michael Carney, the Cal Poly Pomona professor who heads the Real Estate Research Council of Southern California said, ”Once we get people thinking prices will go back up, we will see a fast turn. There’s a lot of money ready to go.”

It may not make sense to wait for the ‘good news’ that prices are rising again and if Carney is right, how quick can you get in on that ‘fast return’?