The housing bottom can be an elusive thing. Determining when we’ve actually arrived can only be seen in retrospect, but clearly there are some signs that indicate, we haven’t quite seen the end of this housing recession.
As I’ve said before, there are several things that have me concerned about the housing market in Orange County.
- The large number of negative equity homeowners
- The disproportionate number of homeowners that qualified for their loans with adherence to minimal guidelines
- The number of homeowners that have negotiated short term solutions to long term loans problems
- The lack of solid and accessible financing for current buyer demand
- The long process for handling the abundance of short sale inventory
Some of those concerns, and others, are voiced by Stan Humphries, Zillow’s Chief Economist, in this recent article in the Orange County Register. According to Humphries, we are looking at 3rd quarter for the ‘bottom’ of this year and a long, flat recovery that will take us into 2013. His view was one of a national market, and given the magnitude of our housing crisis, I believe it may very well take at least that long.
If you are a seller: consider your options carefully. Can you hold on for the next few years? Can you lease the property? And if you are hanging on to it, think seriously about that decision if you are holding out for growth – that won’t be happening any time soon.
If you are a buyer: Lending will be one of your primary concerns. Investigate your options carefully and know what you can qualify for before you shop. Opportunities will be out there, but don’t buy unless you plan on owning for at least 5 years right now.
[...] The Housing Bottom? Not Yet [...]